Predicting severe renal dysfunction in alcohol-associated cirrhosis: Comparative performance of liver function scores and machine learning models.

BACKGROUND

Renal dysfunction is a frequent and clinically relevant complication of cirrhosis, yet chronic kidney disease (CKD) often remains underrecognized, particularly in non-acute settings. Early identification of at-risk patients is essential to guide timely interventions. Although MELD, Child-Pugh Score (CPS), APRI, and FIB-4 are widely used to assess hepatic disease severity, their predictive value for advanced renal dysfunction is uncertain.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study (2014-2021, Klinikum Stuttgart), we evaluated the ability of MELD, CPS, APRI, and FIB-4 to predict severe renal dysfunction (chronic kidney disease [CKD] stage ≥ 3, according to Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes [KDIGO] classification) in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. Logistic and linear regression analyses were performed. In addition, machine learning (ML) models were trained to identify non-renal predictors of CKD stage ≥ 3.

RESULTS

Among 131 patients (mean age 62.8 ± 11.3 years; 71% male), 33% met criteria for KDIGO stage ≥ 3. MELD was significantly associated with advanced CKD (OR = 1.379, p < 0.001), with prevalence increasing from 17% (MELD ≤ 9) to 80% (MELD ≥ 20). CPS showed an inverse association (p = 0.002), while APRI and FIB-4 were not predictive. The optimized Random Forest model, refined through ROSE oversampling and feature selection, achieved an AUC of 0.757, with 76% accuracy, 82% sensitivity (KDIGO < 3), and 63% specificity (KDIGO ≥ 3).

CONCLUSION

MELD was the most reliable conventional score for identifying advanced renal dysfunction in alcoholic cirrhosis. ML-based models incorporating routinely available clinical parameters further improved predictive performance and may support risk stratification in this high-risk population.