A nomogram model based on HALP score and sST2 for predicting 1-year MACE risk after PCI in acute myocardial infarction patients.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a nomogram model integrating the HALP score (a composite score of hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocytes, and platelets) and sST2 for predicting the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) within 1 year after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

METHODS

This retrospective analysis included 236 AMI patients undergoing emergency PCI (2019-2024), categorized into MACE ( = 102) and non-MACE ( = 134) groups. Independent predictors were identified through multivariate logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram model was constructed. Model performance was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the Bootstrap method ( = 1,000).

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis revealed that Killip class IV (OR = 3.758,   0.009), high sST2 levels (OR = 1.008,   0.009), high LDL-C (OR = 1.533,   0.041), high LVEDD (OR = 1.106,   0.009), and low HALP score (OR = 0.958,   0.023) were independent predictors of MACE. The combined model exhibited significantly better predictive performance than single indicators (AUC = 0.833, 95% CI: 0.781-0.886), with a sensitivity of 87.3% and specificity of 68.7%. The nomogram demonstrated good calibration after Bootstrap validation (Hosmer-Lemeshow test   0.157).

CONCLUSION

The nomogram model developed in this study, which integrates the HALP score (reflecting inflammatory-nutritional status) and sST2 (a marker of myocardial fibrosis) along with clinical indicators, can effectively predict the risk of MACE after PCI and provides a visual tool for individualized risk stratification.