Houlton M C, Marivate M, Philpott R H
Br J Obstet Gynaecol. 1982 Mar;89(3):190-4. doi: 10.1111/j.1471-0528.1982.tb03611.x.
A total of 132 twin pregnancies in black African women were studied prospectively after 30 weeks gestation. Delivery occurred before 37 weeks in 32%. There was a trend (0.1 greater than P greater than 0.05) towards a higher preterm delivery rate in nullipara (57%), in women under the age of 20 years (60%) and in those with a height/weight ratio of greater than 2.5 (50%). The cervix was assessed with a score based on the length of the canal minus the dilatation of the internal os. In both term and preterm labour there was a significant relation between a cervical score of 0 or a decrease in cervical score and the onset of labour within the subsequent 14 days (P less than 0.001). By these criteria to predict impending labour, 60% of all labours that ensured within 14 days of the assessment would have been predicted with a 20% false positive rate. When nulliparae were excluded the predictive value of cervical assessment for preterm labour was 80% with a false positive rate of less than 5%. Plasma oestriol levels were significantly higher in the preterm labour group but had no clinical prognostic value.
对132例妊娠30周后的非洲黑人女性双胎妊娠进行了前瞻性研究。32%的产妇在37周前分娩。初产妇(57%)、20岁以下女性(60%)以及身高体重比大于2.5的女性(50%)的早产率有升高趋势(0.1>P>0.05)。根据宫颈管长度减去宫颈内口扩张程度对宫颈进行评分。足月分娩和早产时,宫颈评分为0或宫颈评分降低与随后14天内临产之间均存在显著相关性(P<0.001)。按照这些预测即将临产的标准,在评估后14天内发生的所有分娩中,60%可被预测,假阳性率为20%。排除初产妇后,宫颈评估对早产的预测价值为80%,假阳性率低于5%。早产组血浆雌三醇水平显著更高,但无临床预后价值。