Wood J W, Smouse P E
Am J Phys Anthropol. 1982 Aug;58(4):403-11. doi: 10.1002/ajpa.1330580408.
A method of estimating age-specific coefficients of density-dependent variation in fertility and mortality is developed; the method is applicable to longitudinal data on population size and the number of births and deaths classified by age. Given a sufficiently large data set, it is possible to estimate both the sensitivity of each age class to density-dependent damping and the density effect of each age class on every age class in the population. Application of the method to government census data on the Gainj, a small tribal population from highland Papua New Guinea, shows that fertility is density-independent, but that mortality is at least partially density-dependent. This finding suggests that the size of the population is regulated by mortality rather than fertility. Individuals aged less than five years and greater than 50 years are particularly sensitive to density-dependent survival damping; individuals of adolescent and early reproductive age are not themselves damped, but appear to be responsible for the observed damping.
本文提出了一种估计生育率和死亡率的密度依赖变化的年龄特异性系数的方法；该方法适用于按年龄分类的人口规模以及出生和死亡人数的纵向数据。给定一个足够大的数据集，就有可能估计每个年龄组对密度依赖衰减的敏感性以及每个年龄组对人口中每个年龄组的密度效应。将该方法应用于来自巴布亚新几内亚高地的一个小部落群体Gainj的政府人口普查数据，结果表明生育率与密度无关，但死亡率至少部分依赖于密度。这一发现表明，人口规模是由死亡率而非生育率调节的。年龄小于5岁和大于50岁的个体对密度依赖的生存衰减特别敏感；青少年和早育年龄的个体本身不会受到衰减，但似乎是观察到的衰减的原因。
