Schneider B
Arzneimittelforschung. 1982;32(5):471-4.
Compounds can be admitted as drugs only, if their effectivity and relative intoxicity are demonstrated by pharmacological and clinical trials. The characterisation of these two properties must therefore be the leading idea and final goal of the first steps in preclinical screening. This point was stressed by N. Brock, who propagated the use of the therapeutic index (defined by him as the ratio of the DE5 (toxic) to the DE95(curative) at propriate animal models) as a quantitative measure of these properties. The definition and interpretation of this measure (as well as an equivalent measure, the so-called "coefficient of danger") are discussed in this paper. A preclinical screening procedure based on this therapeutic index is introduced, which allows decisions with preassigned error probabilities at minimum experimental effort. As reliability measure for clinical inferences this use of the a posteriori probability according to Bayes' theorem is proposed.
只有当化合物的有效性和相对毒性通过药理学和临床试验得到证实时,它们才能被批准为药物。因此,对这两种特性的表征必须是临床前筛选第一步的主导思想和最终目标。N. Brock强调了这一点,他主张使用治疗指数(在适当的动物模型中,他将其定义为DE5(毒性)与DE95(治愈性)的比值)作为这些特性的定量度量。本文讨论了该度量的定义和解释(以及一个等效度量,即所谓的“危险系数”)。介绍了一种基于该治疗指数的临床前筛选程序,该程序允许以最小的实验工作量做出具有预先指定错误概率的决策。作为临床推断的可靠性度量,本文提出根据贝叶斯定理使用后验概率。