Keeler E B, Kane R L, Solomon D H
Med Care. 1981 Mar;19(3):363-70. doi: 10.1097/00005650-198103000-00011.
This article analyzes reported data on length of stay of discharged patients from the 1977 National Nursing Home Survey. Assuming that patients admitted to nursing homes are one of two types, short-stayers and long-stayers, the statistically best-fitting proportions and expected lengths of stay for the two types are derived. The results are applied to statistics on characteristics of resident and discharged patients to find admission characteristics that differentiate the two groups. Because long-stayers and short-stayers have quite different characteristics, nursing home statistics will be very different if one bases them on discharges or a cross-section of residents. For example, we estimate that short-stay patients represent 61 per cent of discharges but only 9 per cent of residents. A further application shows that, including deaths in hospitals, almost half of discharged patients die, rather than the usually cited figure of 25 per cent.
本文分析了1977年全国疗养院调查中关于出院患者住院时长的报告数据。假设入住疗养院的患者分为短期住院者和长期住院者两类，通过统计得出这两类患者的最佳拟合比例及预期住院时长。研究结果应用于住院患者和出院患者的特征统计，以找出区分这两组患者的入院特征。由于长期住院者和短期住院者具有截然不同的特征，如果以出院患者或住院患者的横断面为基础，疗养院的统计数据会有很大差异。例如，我们估计短期住院患者占出院患者的61%，但仅占住院患者的9%。进一步的应用表明，若将在医院死亡的患者包括在内，几乎一半的出院患者死亡，而非通常引用的25%这一数字。
