Selikoff I J, Hammond E C, Seidman H
Cancer. 1980 Dec 15;46(12):2736-40. doi: 10.1002/1097-0142(19801215)46:12<2736::aid-cncr2820461233>3.0.co;2-l.
Two thousand two hundred seventy-one deaths were recorded among 17,800 asbestos insulation workers observed from January 1, 1967-December 31, 1976. There was little increase in cancer deaths or of asbestosis in less than 15-19 years from onset of employment. In general, though, the period of clinical latency was 2-4 decades or more and there were important differences among the several asbestos-associated diseases. Lung cancer peaked at about 30-35 years from onset and asbestosis at 40-45 years. Each tended to decline in incidence afterwards. Pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma reached their highest incidence later than lung cancer, but the incidence did not decline. In studies of effects of asbestos exposure, it appears advantageous to observe for at least 35-40 years or more from onset of exposure and to analyze the experience in duration-from-onset categories. If this is not possible, only the very limited early effects will be identified and the full import of the exposure may not be appreciated.
在1967年1月1日至1976年12月31日期间对17800名石棉绝缘工人进行观察,记录到2271例死亡。从开始工作起不到15至19年,癌症死亡或石棉沉着病几乎没有增加。不过,一般来说,临床潜伏期为2至4十年或更长时间,几种石棉相关疾病之间存在重要差异。肺癌在发病后约30至35年达到高峰,石棉沉着病在40至45年达到高峰。此后每种疾病的发病率都趋于下降。胸膜和腹膜间皮瘤的发病率达到最高值的时间比肺癌晚,但发病率没有下降。在石棉暴露影响的研究中,从暴露开始观察至少35至40年或更长时间,并分析发病后不同时间段的情况似乎是有利的。如果做不到这一点,就只能识别出非常有限的早期影响,而暴露的全部影响可能无法得到认识。