[The prognostic value of cardiology screening data in relation to the development of myocardial infarct in the next 7 years].

A prospective follow-up within 7 years was performed for 4148 males aged 40-59 from an open population of Minsk who had been subjected to cardiological screening. The frequency of myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) established at screening exceeded that of CHD-free subjects 4.1 times. For separate forms of CHD a relative risk for patients with MI history, angina pectoris of effort (by Roze questionnaire) and isolated ischemic changes on ECG at rest amounted to 8.6, 4.0 and 2.3, respectively. MI was associated with blood pressure, cholesterol levels. A multivariate analysis revealed a significant independent contribution of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking and age to the risk of MI development in subjects free of CHD at screening. Concrete values of beta-coefficients of the logistic function prognosticating the risk of MI development in the population studied have been determined.