Lansbergen L M, Nielen M, Lam T J, Pengov A, Schukken Y H, Maatje K
Department of Herd Health and Reproduction, Utrecht University, The Netherlands.
J Dairy Sci. 1994 Apr;77(4):1132-40. doi: 10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(94)77049-1.
A prototype on-line system for measurement of electrical conductivity of quarter milk was evaluated for accuracy in detection of subclinical mastitis compared with that of bacteriological culture and SCC of sampled quarters. Because of the low quarter prevalence of mastitis, quarters were sampled conditionally from the signals of the on-line system. All signaled quarters and a random selection of the nonsignaled quarters were sampled. To calculate sensitivity and specificity, the total number of non-signaled quarters was extrapolated. The system identified correctly 18 out of 23 subclinical quarters and 521 out of 555 healthy quarters. Quarter prevalence was about 1%. Predictive value of a positive test (35%) and the predictive value of a negative test (99%) were calculated, as well as sensitivity (25%) and specificity (99%), after extrapolation of the total number of nonsignaled quarters. Because of repeated measurements, sensitivity may be underestimated. When signaled quarters were defined by repeated signals within 14 d, predictive value positive increased to 48%. The prototype on-line system did not detect subclinical mastitis very accurately because of suboptimal test characteristics.
与采样乳腺的细菌学培养和体细胞计数相比,对一种用于测量四分之一牛奶电导率的在线原型系统检测亚临床乳腺炎的准确性进行了评估。由于乳腺炎在乳腺中的患病率较低,因此根据在线系统的信号有条件地对乳腺进行采样。对所有发出信号的乳腺以及随机选择的未发出信号的乳腺进行采样。为了计算敏感性和特异性,对未发出信号的乳腺总数进行了外推。该系统正确识别出23个亚临床乳腺中的18个以及555个健康乳腺中的521个。乳腺患病率约为1%。在对未发出信号的乳腺总数进行外推后,计算出阳性检测的预测值(35%)和阴性检测的预测值(99%),以及敏感性(25%)和特异性(99%)。由于进行了重复测量,敏感性可能被低估。当通过14天内的重复信号来定义发出信号的乳腺时,阳性预测值增加到48%。由于测试特性不理想,该在线原型系统对亚临床乳腺炎的检测不太准确。