Passannante M R, Restifo R A, Reichman L B
Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Medicine and Dentistry-New Jersey Medical School, Newark 07103.
Chest. 1993 Mar;103(3):825-31. doi: 10.1378/chest.103.3.825.
The delphi method of decision making was used to address an unusual clinical case in which various aspects of the case required opposing management strategies.
A panel of 30 pulmonary experts was surveyed repeatedly until a convergence of treatment approaches was reached for a patient who was considered to have both a universal indication for and a universal contraindication against prevention therapy. Participants were asked to evaluate the appropriateness of proposed treatments on a scale from 1 to 9, with 1 being extremely inappropriate, 5 being equivocal, and 9 being extremely appropriate. The delphi survey data responses were compared using measures of central tendency (ie, the mean and median) and measures of variability (ie, the standard deviation and interquartile range).
Although no treatment was wholeheartedly supported by the experts, analysis of the three-round delphi survey responses resulted in two possible treatments: rifampin, 600 mg daily, for four months, or no treatment with close observation. Interestingly, the experts working in a non-university setting favored the rifampin treatment, and those working in a university setting favored no treatment with close observation.
The delphi method has the potential to be used for clinical decision making.
采用德尔菲决策方法处理一个特殊的临床病例,该病例的各个方面需要采用相互矛盾的管理策略。
对一个由30名肺部专家组成的小组进行反复调查,直到针对一名被认为既有预防治疗的普遍适应证又有普遍禁忌证的患者达成治疗方法的共识。要求参与者按照1至9的评分标准评估所提议治疗方法的适宜性,1分为极不适宜,5分为模棱两可,9分为极适宜。使用集中趋势度量(即均值和中位数)以及变异性度量(即标准差和四分位距)对德尔菲调查数据的回答进行比较。
尽管没有一种治疗方法得到专家们的一致支持,但对三轮德尔菲调查回答的分析得出了两种可能的治疗方法:每日服用600毫克利福平,持续四个月,或者不进行治疗但密切观察。有趣的是,在非大学环境工作的专家倾向于利福平治疗,而在大学环境工作的专家则倾向于不进行治疗但密切观察。
德尔菲方法有用于临床决策的潜力。