[The modern analysis and prediction of the spread of acute respiratory viral infections].

The weekly dynamics of registered morbidity in the whole complex of acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI) for 1960-1994 was studied. The duration of the annual epidemic cycle of ARVI was taken to be the period from week 26 of the given year to week 25 of the following year. The dynamics of the development of the epidemic process made it possible to distinguish 7 definite stages of the epidemic cycle. The assessment of the state of morbidity at the final stages of the completed epidemic cycle and at the first stages of the following epidemic cycle permits the prediction of the level of ARVI morbidity for the whole following epidemic cycle and the determination of the adequate set of prophylactic measures.