Trends in colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in New South Wales, 1973-1992.

OBJECTIVE

To assess changes in incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer in different age groups in New South Wales (NSW) between 1973 and 1992.

DESIGN

Descriptive analysis of data on incidence and mortality from the population-based NSW Central Cancer Registry and on colorectal cancer diagnostic tests from the Health Insurance Commission.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates for colon and rectal cancer (defined by codes 153 and 154 in the International classification of diseases, 9th revision) by sex and age group (15-44, 45-59, 60-74 or > or = 75 years) and incidence by cancer spread at diagnosis; age-standardised rates for faecal occult blood tests, sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy.

RESULTS

From 1973 to 1992, colorectal cancer incidence increased significantly in NSW by an average of 2.0% per year in males (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 2.3) and 0.9% in females (95% CI, 0.7 to 1.1). Mortality rates remained nearly constant in males, but fell significantly in females by an average of -1.0% per year (95% CI, -1.3 to -0.7). In the youngest age group (15-44 years) both incidence and mortality rates fell significantly, while rates were stable or rose in older age groups, except for a significant fall in mortality in women aged > or = 75 years. Use of colonoscopy (an early detection method) increased, but a corresponding shift to detection of earlier-stage cancers was not seen.

CONCLUSIONS

A reduction in risk factors and better treatment leading to longer survival may have contributed to the falls in incidence in younger people and in mortality in females.