Pollán M, López-Abente G, Ardanaz E, Moreo P, Moreno C, Vergara A, Aragonés N
Cancer Epidemiology Unit, National Center for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain.
Eur J Cancer. 1997 Apr;33(4):616-23. doi: 10.1016/s0959-8049(96)00525-4.
Patterns and trends in childhood cancer incidence for Navarre and Zaragoza registries were studied over the 15-year period, 1973-1987. Overall cancer rates and rates for 10 specific types of cancer were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model or, alternatively, a gamma-Poisson model whenever overdispersion was present, with age, sex, registry and period being used as predictor variables. Childhood cancer was 30% more frequent in boys than in girls, and, except for lymphomas and bone tumours, incidence decreased remarkably with age. Adjusted rates were high in comparison with other European countries, particularly in the case of non-Hodgkin's lymphomas. Cancer rates proved somewhat higher in Navarre, but this difference attained statistical significance solely in the case of central nervous system tumours (rate ratio = 1.75; 95% confidence interval 1.21-2.54). A significant rise in overall incidence was observed (11% 5-yearly increase) due mainly to the upward trend in central nervous system tumours. While the rise in these tumours coincides with the period which witnessed the spread of computerised tomography in Spain, the trend nevertheless held steady over the last 5-year period, when access to this diagnostic technique had already become generalised nationwide.
对1973年至1987年这15年间纳瓦拉和萨拉戈萨癌症登记处儿童癌症发病率的模式和趋势进行了研究。使用对数线性泊松模型分析总体癌症发病率以及10种特定癌症类型的发病率,或者在存在过度离散的情况下使用伽马-泊松模型,将年龄、性别、登记处和时期用作预测变量。儿童癌症在男孩中的发病率比女孩高30%,除淋巴瘤和骨肿瘤外,发病率随年龄显著下降。与其他欧洲国家相比,调整后的发病率较高,尤其是非霍奇金淋巴瘤。纳瓦拉的癌症发病率略高,但这种差异仅在中枢神经系统肿瘤的情况下具有统计学意义(发病率比=1.75;95%置信区间1.21-2.54)。观察到总体发病率显著上升(每年上升11%),主要原因是中枢神经系统肿瘤呈上升趋势。虽然这些肿瘤的增加与西班牙计算机断层扫描普及的时期相吻合,但在过去5年期间,当这种诊断技术在全国已经普遍应用时,这一趋势仍然保持稳定。