The incidence of sheep strike by Lucilia sericata on sheep farms in Britain: a simulation model.

Using a combination of a temperature-dependent simulation of the population dynamics of Lucilia sericata and a logistic model of sheep susceptibility, based on patterns of faecal soiling, fleece length and fleece humidity, a deterministic simulation model has been constructed to predict the incidence of sheep strike by L. sericata on lambs and ewes in Britain. Strikes are assigned to individual sheep in the flock according to a negative binomial distribution. The model shows that the majority of the first strikes of the season occur equally on ewes and lambs, when ewe fleeces are long and before lamb susceptibility increases though faecal soiling. With each subsequent generation of gravid blowflies, however, a greater proportion of strikes occur on lambs, while the number of strikes observed on ewes remains relatively consistent throughout the season. The increase in strike of lambs is due to the seasonal increase in lamb faecal soiling, associated with rising helminth infections and lamb fleece growth. The model shows that at the beginning of the season the incidence of strike is limited by the low number of flies present: towards the end of seasons, however, the blowfly population had grown large enough for the number of strikes to be limited by the number of susceptible ewes and lambs. The model shows that the seasonal incidence of strike is highly sensitive to the interactions between temperature, rainfall and would length. Strike was most prevalent under warm, wet conditions. However, there is a critical period during spring, where the short fleeces of lambs and ewes, in the latter case due to shearing, results in the desiccation of egg batches. If this coincides with dry conditions, the high levels of mortality result in suppression of the fly population and a reduction in the subsequent incidence of strike.