Nriagu J O
Department of Environmental and Industrial Health, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48109, USA.
Environ Res. 1998 Aug;78(2):71-8. doi: 10.1006/enrs.1997.3808.
In 1925, Robert A. Kehoe enunciated a paradigm predicated upon categorical distinction between expectations and conjecture ("show me the data" mentality) from hard scientific facts on exposure outcomes. It led to a precedent-setting system of voluntary self-regulation by lead industry as a model for environmental control and implicitly signaled the level of industrial responsibility for lead pollution. It combined a cascading uncertainty rule (there is always uncertainty to be found in a world of imperfect information) with a highly skewed cost-benefit concept (immediate benefits of tetraethyl lead additives must be weighed against possible future health hazards). Many studies were funded by the lead industry to develop a theoretical framework for the paradigm which served as a strong defensive strategy against lead critics. It resulted in an unfettered growth in automotive lead pollution to over 270,000 tons per year in the United States and 350,000 tons per year worldwide during the early 1970s. Clair Patterson is credited with being the first person to mount an effective challenge against the Kehoe paradigm, and with his success came an upsurge of activity and attention to the risks of environmental lead pollution on public health.
1925年，罗伯特·A·凯霍提出了一种范式，该范式基于期望与推测（“给我看数据”的心态）与关于接触结果的确凿科学事实之间的明确区分。这导致了铅行业自愿自我监管的一个开创先例的体系，成为环境控制的典范，并含蓄地表明了工业对铅污染的责任程度。它将一种级联不确定性规则（在信息不完美的世界中总能发现不确定性）与一个高度倾斜的成本效益概念（四乙基铅添加剂的即时效益必须与未来可能的健康危害相权衡）结合起来。铅行业资助了许多研究，以发展该范式的理论框架，这成为对抗铅批评者的有力防御策略。这导致了汽车铅污染在美国不受限制地增长，到20世纪70年代初，美国每年超过27万吨，全球每年超过35万吨。克莱尔·帕特森被誉为第一个对凯霍范式发起有效挑战的人，随着他的成功，人们对环境铅污染对公众健康风险的关注和行动激增。
