Assessing prognosis and selecting an initial site of care for adults with community-acquired pneumonia.

Over the last 20 years, more than 15 medical practice guidelines and clinical prediction rules have emerged to assist physicians in assessing the prognosis of adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and selecting an appropriately matched initial site of care. Most of these guidelines and rules suffer from major methodological flaws. One, the Pneumonia Patient Outcomes Research Team (PORT) clinical prediction rule, has satisfied rigorous methodological standards for the derivation and validation of high-quality prediction rules. This rule was incorporated into the Infectious Disease Society of America medical practice guideline for the management of adults with CAP. Strengths of the rule include its derivation and validation in over 50,000 inpatients and outpatients; stratification of all immunocompetent adult patients into one of five risk strata for short-term mortality and other unambiguous adverse medical outcomes; initial site of care recommendations for all patients, particularly those at low risk; and reliance on predictor variables readily available to clinicians at the time of initial patient presentation. A recent small-scale intervention trial demonstrates that the pneumonia PORT rule can reduce admissions for adult patients with CAP without compromising patient outcomes.