Fischman H R
J Am Vet Med Assoc. 1976 Dec 1;169(11):1207-1).
Establishing a causative relationship for the association between geographic distribution of caves and the occurrence of rabies in foxes in the United States will require the demonstration of a plausible biological mechanism and proof from carefully designed epidemiologic studies. Considerable data implying biological plausibility exists in the form of rabies as an enzootic disease in bats, bat predation by ground animals, bat migratory patterns, and several possible virus transmission routes to the fox. Further data showing development of rabies in the fox following appropriate bat contact are needed. Evidence leading to the acceptability of a causal relationship should distinguish between spurious, causal, and indirect hypotheses. An alternative hypothesis is whether cave areas are superior fox habitats and harbor far greater populations of foxes than do noncave areas.
要在美国确定洞穴的地理分布与狐狸狂犬病发生之间的关联的因果关系,需要证明一种合理的生物学机制,并要有精心设计的流行病学研究提供的证据。有相当多的数据暗示了生物学上的合理性,这些数据包括狂犬病作为蝙蝠的一种地方性动物病、地面动物捕食蝙蝠、蝙蝠的迁徙模式以及几种可能的病毒传播途径给狐狸。还需要进一步的数据来表明狐狸在与蝙蝠进行适当接触后会感染狂犬病。能导致接受因果关系的证据应区分虚假假设、因果假设和间接假设。另一种假设是洞穴区域是否是更好的狐狸栖息地,以及洞穴区域的狐狸数量是否比非洞穴区域多得多。