Xiong R, Xie G, Edmondson A E, Sheard M A
Food Research Group, Leeds Metropolitan University, UK.
Int J Food Microbiol. 1999 Jan 12;46(1):45-55. doi: 10.1016/s0168-1605(98)00172-x.
The first order kinetic model, the Buchanan model and Cerf's model, can model a linear survival curve, a survival curve with a shoulder and a survival curve with a tailing, respectively. However, they are not suitable for fitting a sigmoidal survival curve. The three models were integrated into a new model that was capable of fitting the four most commonly observed survival curves: linear curves, curves with a shoulder, curves with a tailing (biphasic curves) and sigmoidal curves. The new model was compared with the Whiting-Buchanan model using the survival curves of Staphylococcus aureus. The goodness-of-fit of the proposed model is practically as good as that of the Whiting-Buchanan model. Compared with the Whiting-Buchanan model, the proposed model has a more mechanistic background. Since for non-linear survival curves, such as biphasic and sigmoidal curves, the t(m-D) value (the time required for an m-log-cycle reduction of microorganisms under a given condition) cannot be estimated accurately by the existing or traditional method, a new method is also proposed to predict accurately the t(m-D) value for non-linear survival curves.
一级动力学模型、布坎南模型和塞尔夫模型分别可以模拟线性存活曲线、具有肩部的存活曲线和具有拖尾的存活曲线。然而，它们并不适合拟合S形存活曲线。这三个模型被整合到一个新模型中，该新模型能够拟合四种最常见的存活曲线：线性曲线、具有肩部的曲线、具有拖尾的曲线（双相曲线）和S形曲线。使用金黄色葡萄球菌的存活曲线将新模型与怀廷 - 布坎南模型进行了比较。所提出模型的拟合优度实际上与怀廷 - 布坎南模型相当。与怀廷 - 布坎南模型相比，所提出的模型具有更合理的机制背景。由于对于非线性存活曲线，如双相曲线和S形曲线，现有的或传统方法无法准确估计t(m-D)值（在给定条件下微生物减少m个对数周期所需的时间），因此还提出了一种新方法来准确预测非线性存活曲线的t(m-D)值。
