Fibrinolytic activation markers predict myocardial infarction in the elderly. The Cardiovascular Health Study.

Coagulation factor levels predict arterial thrombosis in epidemiological studies, but studies of older persons are needed. We studied 3 plasma antigenic markers of fibrinolysis, viz, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1), fibrin fragment D-dimer, and plasmin-antiplasmin complex (PAP) for the prediction of arterial thrombosis in healthy elderly persons over age 65. The study was a nested case-control study in the Cardiovascular Health Study cohort of 5201 men and women >/=65 years of age who were enrolled from 1989 to 1990. Cases were 146 participants without baseline clinical vascular disease who developed myocardial infarction, angina, or coronary death during a follow-up of 2.4 years. Controls remained free of cardiovascular events and were matched 1:1 to cases with respect to sex, duration of follow-up, and baseline subclinical vascular disease status. With increasing quartile of D-dimer and PAP levels but not of PAI-1, there was an independent increased risk of myocardial infarction or coronary death, but not of angina. The relative risk for D-dimer above versus below the median value (>/=120 microg/L) was 2.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 5.9) and for PAP above the median (>/=5.25 nmol/L), 3.1 (1.3 to 7.7). Risks were independent of C-reactive protein and fibrinogen concentrations. There were no differences in risk by sex or presence of baseline subclinical disease. D-dimer and PAP, but not PAI-1, predicted future myocardial infarction in men and women over age 65. Relationships were independent of other risk factors, including inflammation markers. Results indicate a major role for these markers in identifying a high risk of arterial disease in this age group.