Kerr J K, Jelinek R
J Health Adm Educ. 1990 Winter;8(1):5-10.
Applications as outlined above and many more that have not yet even been identified--but that will be invented and developed--will have an enormous impact on the health care industry. Clearly, capital requirements to purchase this technology will go up and thus exert further pressure for the reduction of personnel. Computers and robots will replace a significant percentage of health care personnel; overall health care costs as a percent of gross national product will nevertheless probably continue to rise in spite of improvements in productivity. Added costs will be offset in part by the use of technology in areas that will impact efficiency. Because of these accelerating uses of sophisticated technology, future administrators will have a greater appreciation for what technology can offer. Practical uses of robotics, expert systems, and artificial intelligence will require administrators to be technologically proficient.
上述应用以及许多尚未被识别——但将会被发明和开发出来的应用——将对医疗保健行业产生巨大影响。显然,购买这项技术的资金需求将会增加,从而进一步给人员削减带来压力。计算机和机器人将取代相当大比例的医疗保健人员;尽管生产率有所提高,但医疗保健总成本占国民生产总值的百分比可能仍会继续上升。额外成本将部分被技术在提高效率方面的应用所抵消。由于这些复杂技术的加速应用,未来的管理人员将更加了解技术所能提供的东西。机器人技术、专家系统和人工智能的实际应用将要求管理人员具备技术能力。