The risk of nursing home admission in three communities.

Beginning in 1982, the 3-year incidence of nursing home admission was determined for community-dwelling residents aged 65 and over in East Boston, Massachusetts (4%); New Haven, Connecticut (9%); and Iowa and Washington Counties, Iowa (12%). A common methodology was used to collect baseline risk factor and follow-up data on nursing home admissions among persons in each community as part of the National Institute on Aging's Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly. A multivariate logistic regression model of baseline risk factors that included the participant's age, race, sex, history of prior admission, ADL limitations, cognitive function, living arrangements, and level of income predicted 80% of the users in each community.