20世纪80年代新药引进研发的回归情况。

Returns to R&D on new drug introductions in the 1980s.

作者信息

Grabowski H G, Vernon J M

机构信息

Duke University, Department of Economics, Durham, NC 27708.

出版信息

J Health Econ. 1994 Dec;13(4):383-406. doi: 10.1016/0167-6296(94)90010-8.

DOI:10.1016/0167-6296(94)90010-8

PMID:10140531

Abstract

This study finds that the mean IRR for 1980-84 U.S. new drug introductions is 11.1%, and the mean NPV is 22 million (1990 dollars). The distribution of returns is highly skewed. The results are robust to plausible changes in the baseline assumptions. Our work is also compared with a 1993 study by the OTA. Despite some important differences in assumptions, both studies imply that returns for the average NCE are within one percentage point of the industry's cost of capital. This is much less than what is typically observed in analyses based on accounting data.

摘要

本研究发现，1980 - 1984年美国新药推出的平均内部收益率为11.1%，平均净现值为2200万美元（按1990年美元计算）。收益分布高度不均衡。结果对于基线假设的合理变化具有稳健性。我们的研究还与美国技术评估办公室1993年的一项研究进行了比较。尽管在假设方面存在一些重要差异，但两项研究均表明，普通新化学实体的回报率与行业资本成本相差在一个百分点以内。这远低于基于会计数据的分析中通常观察到的情况。