Cost effectiveness scenario analysis for a proposed trial of hormone replacement therapy.

Whereas evaluation of resource implications and quality of life are often incorporated into assessments of health technology, the decision to undertake the assessment is still mostly driven by interests in the clinical outcomes alone. A systematic approach to evaluating expected returns to health technology assessment has not been readily taken up by research funders or assessors. This paper sets out a specific methodology for ex ante evaluation or triage and proposes a decision procedure, using alternative outcome scenarios and the associated policy changes and costs and benefits, against a background of likely clinical practice in the absence of the assessment. The methodology is used to consider implications of a proposed major clinical trial to assess the long term costs and benefits of hormone replacement therapy.