Townsend J, Buxton M
Centre for Research in Primary and Community Care, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, UK.
Health Policy. 1997 Mar;39(3):181-94. doi: 10.1016/s0168-8510(96)00870-6.
Whereas evaluation of resource implications and quality of life are often incorporated into assessments of health technology, the decision to undertake the assessment is still mostly driven by interests in the clinical outcomes alone. A systematic approach to evaluating expected returns to health technology assessment has not been readily taken up by research funders or assessors. This paper sets out a specific methodology for ex ante evaluation or triage and proposes a decision procedure, using alternative outcome scenarios and the associated policy changes and costs and benefits, against a background of likely clinical practice in the absence of the assessment. The methodology is used to consider implications of a proposed major clinical trial to assess the long term costs and benefits of hormone replacement therapy.
虽然在对健康技术的评估中常常会纳入对资源影响和生活质量的评估，但开展评估的决定仍是主要由仅关注临床结果的利益驱动。研究资助者或评估者并未轻易采用一种系统的方法来评估健康技术评估的预期回报。本文阐述了一种用于事前评估或筛选的具体方法，并提出了一种决策程序，该程序运用替代结果情景以及相关的政策变化、成本和收益，以缺乏评估情况下可能的临床实践为背景。该方法被用于考量一项拟议的大型临床试验的影响，以评估激素替代疗法的长期成本和收益。
