Evans C
Lewin Group, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
Pharmacoeconomics. 1997 Aug;12(2 Pt 1):121-9. doi: 10.2165/00019053-199712020-00003.
The use of expert opinion in pharmacoeconomic studies is widespread. A review of the relevant literature has shown that expert opinion is frequently used in decision analysis, Markov models and disease management, with estimates of potential values derived from Delphi panels, modified Delphi panels and expert round tables. These consensus-gathering methods are often applied as if potential drawbacks to their application were absent. This article reviews and summarises the use of these techniques in pharmacoeconomic research and evaluates the potential shortcomings of the methodology employed. In particular, several areas of concern are noted: the provision of baseline information or seed algorithms to panellists, the high attrition rate of panels, the criteria for selecting experts and the definition of consensus. This article offers recommendations for the future application of these techniques and concludes that expert opinion can still play a valuable role in pharmacoeconomic research.
专家意见在药物经济学研究中的应用十分广泛。对相关文献的回顾表明，专家意见在决策分析、马尔可夫模型和疾病管理中经常被使用，其潜在价值的估计来自德尔菲小组、改良德尔菲小组和专家圆桌会议。这些达成共识的方法在应用时常常被视作不存在潜在缺陷。本文回顾并总结了这些技术在药物经济学研究中的应用，并评估了所采用方法的潜在缺点。特别指出了几个值得关注的领域：向小组成员提供基线信息或初始算法、小组的高流失率、专家选择标准以及共识的定义。本文为这些技术的未来应用提供了建议，并得出结论，专家意见在药物经济学研究中仍可发挥重要作用。
