Zdichynec B
Cor Vasa. 1976;18(4):294-8.
Out of 9922 patients with ischaemic heart disease [IHD] hospitalized during a decade, clinico-pathological data of 796 patients with acute myocardial infarction [MI] were analyzed in detail. With the aid of a logico-probabilistic model, the author made an attempt to quantify the individual risks of the hospital prognosis of MI and to obtain the so-called cumulative risk of MI. The prognostic relevances of the characters investigated were tested by Bayes' theorem. By reducing the matrix "character-disease", the original number of 201 characters was reduced to 34, which were divided into five classes, as follows: a] anamnestic data about the occurrence of risk factors, b] data on coronary pains, c] objective clinical, electrocardiographic, or roentgenological findings, d] duration of the praehospitalization phase, e] patient's sex and age. The cumulative risk [sum of partial risks] amounted to 60% and less in MI with a favourable hospital prognosis [that is, at lethality lesser than 5%]; to 61%--100% with a medium fair hospital prognosis [at lethality from 6% to 30%], and to more than 101% with a poor hospital prognosis [at lethality of 41% and higher]. A comparative test of the prognostic index, performed in a different referral area, showed a relatively good practical usability of the criteria described.
在十年间住院的9922例缺血性心脏病（IHD）患者中，对796例急性心肌梗死（MI）患者的临床病理数据进行了详细分析。借助逻辑概率模型，作者试图量化MI患者医院预后的个体风险，并得出所谓的MI累积风险。通过贝叶斯定理检验所研究特征的预后相关性。通过简化“特征-疾病”矩阵，将原来的201个特征减少到34个，这些特征分为五类，如下：a]关于危险因素发生的既往史数据；b]关于冠状动脉疼痛的数据；c]客观临床、心电图或放射学检查结果；d]院前阶段的持续时间；e]患者的性别和年龄。在医院预后良好（即死亡率低于5%）的MI患者中，累积风险（部分风险之和）为60%及以下；在医院预后中等（死亡率为6%至30%）的患者中，累积风险为61% - 100%；在医院预后较差（死亡率为41%及更高）的患者中，累积风险超过101%。在不同转诊地区对预后指数进行的对比测试表明，所描述的标准具有相对良好的实际可用性。
