Shachtman R H, Schoenfelder J R, Hogue C J
Oper Res. 1982 Nov-Dec;30(6):1070-81. doi: 10.1287/opre.30.6.1070.
When conducting inferential and epidemiologic studies, researchers are often interested in the distribution of time until the occurrence of some specified event, a form of incidence calculation. Furthermore, this interest often extends to the effects of intervening factors on this distribution. In this paper we impose the assumption that the phenomena being investigated are governed by a stationary Markov chain and review how one may estimate the above distribution. We then introduce and relate two different methods of investigating the effects of intervening factors. In particular, we show how an investigator may evaluate the effect of potential intervention programs. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed methodology using data from a population study.
在进行推断性研究和流行病学研究时，研究人员通常对直到某个特定事件发生的时间分布感兴趣，这是一种发病率计算形式。此外，这种兴趣常常扩展到干预因素对该分布的影响。在本文中，我们假定所研究的现象由平稳马尔可夫链控制，并回顾如何估计上述分布。然后，我们介绍并关联两种研究干预因素影响的不同方法。特别地，我们展示了研究者如何评估潜在干预计划的效果。最后，我们使用一项人群研究的数据来演示所提出的方法。
