Hughes K E, Dalsey H L, Patterson W M
Health Care Strateg Manage. 1983 Oct;1(1):8-11.
This paper presents a useful method for predicting acute care hospital bed needs through an inpatient activity model based upon physician characteristics. Ratios of physician inpatient activity by specialty from one age decade to the next were computed from the authors' data base of 1.2% of all "admitting" physicians in the United States and applied to current physician inpatient activity to predict future activity. Desired lengths of stay, occupancy, and other standards were used to translate future activity into bed need. Different and more comprehensive models are being worked on by the authors. These include analyses using a greater number of endogenous and exogenous variables and models in which DRG's are substituted for patient days as the dependent variable.
本文提出了一种通过基于医生特征的住院患者活动模型预测急症护理医院床位需求的实用方法。根据作者在美国所有“收治”医生的1.2%的数据库计算出各专科医生在一个年龄十年到下一个年龄十年的住院患者活动比率，并将其应用于当前医生的住院患者活动以预测未来活动。使用期望住院天数、床位占用率及其他标准将未来活动转化为床位需求。作者正在研究不同且更全面的模型。这些模型包括使用更多内生和外生变量的分析，以及用诊断相关分组（DRG）替代患者住院天数作为因变量的模型。
