An economic evaluation of "Health for All".

The World Health Organization's 'Global Strategy' is an ambitious vision, but to achieve its goals it must first be implemented. Implementation will require careful and detailed planning. This paper evaluates the possibilities of transforming the Global Strategy from a laudable policy initiative into an actual 'Plan for Health', from the point of view of a health economist. This economic evaluation assesses the probable costs of implementing various activities of the Strategy, and the likelihood that developing countries will be able to afford these costs, either on their own, or with the assistance of the developed countries. A final section considers the current global situation and presents trends over the last two decades. The numbers of countries that have already achieved the goals of the Strategy, that can be expected to achieve the goals of the Strategy by the year 2000, and that are unlikely to achieve these goals (on the basis of current trends) are shown. The WHO 'success indicator' based on numbers of countries is compared to a more epidemiological one based on deciles of the world's population. It is argued that, even several years after the initiation of the Global Strategy, insufficient information exists on the next logical step of transforming the Policy into a Plan. Unless adequate attention is paid to this vital step, implementation of the Strategy will inevitably be ad hoc and patchy. Further research on the costs of the activities proposed by the Global Strategy, and the probable effects on health of those activities, is desperately needed.