Yorke J A, Hethcote H W, Nold A
Institute for Physical Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, USA.
Sex Transm Dis. 1978 Apr-Jun;5(2):51-6. doi: 10.1097/00007435-197804000-00003.
Calculations revealed that approximately a third of the reported cases of gonorrhea in women during 1973-1975 were discoveries of the screening program. Theoretical models and epidemiologic data showed that the prevalence of gonorrhea adjusts rapidly to changes in social behavior, medical treatment, and control programs, that prevalence oscillates seasonally around an equilibrium state determined by the current social and medical conditions, and that this equilibrium moves as epidemiologic conditions change. The incidence of gonorrhea is theoretically limited by saturation in a sexually active core population, and this core causes gonorrhea to remain endemic.
计算结果显示,在1973年至1975年期间报告的女性淋病病例中,约有三分之一是筛查项目发现的。理论模型和流行病学数据表明,淋病的流行率会迅速适应社会行为、医学治疗和防控项目的变化;流行率会围绕由当前社会和医学状况决定的平衡状态呈季节性波动;并且随着流行病学状况的变化,这种平衡也会发生变动。从理论上讲,淋病的发病率受到性活跃核心人群饱和状态的限制,而这个核心群体导致淋病持续流行。