Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Nature. 2021 Jul;595(7866):205-213. doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03694-x. Epub 2021 Jun 30.
Social and cultural forces shape almost every aspect of infectious disease transmission in human populations, as well as our ability to measure, understand, and respond to epidemics. For directly transmitted infections, pathogen transmission relies on human-to-human contact, with kinship, household, and societal structures shaping contact patterns that in turn determine epidemic dynamics. Social, economic, and cultural forces also shape patterns of exposure, health-seeking behaviour, infection outcomes, the likelihood of diagnosis and reporting of cases, and the uptake of interventions. Although these social aspects of epidemiology are hard to quantify and have limited the generalizability of modelling frameworks in a policy context, new sources of data on relevant aspects of human behaviour are increasingly available. Researchers have begun to embrace data from mobile devices and other technologies as useful proxies for behavioural drivers of disease transmission, but there is much work to be done to measure and validate these approaches, particularly for policy-making. Here we discuss how integrating local knowledge in the design of model frameworks and the interpretation of new data streams offers the possibility of policy-relevant models for public health decision-making as well as the development of robust, generalizable theories about human behaviour in relation to infectious diseases.
社会和文化力量几乎塑造了人类群体中传染病传播的各个方面,以及我们衡量、理解和应对疫情的能力。对于直接传播的感染,病原体的传播依赖于人与人之间的接触,亲缘关系、家庭和社会结构塑造了接触模式,进而决定了疫情的动态。社会、经济和文化力量也影响着暴露模式、寻医行为、感染结果、病例诊断和报告的可能性,以及干预措施的接受程度。尽管这些流行病学的社会方面难以量化,并且在政策背景下限制了模型框架的通用性,但关于人类行为相关方面的新数据源越来越多。研究人员已经开始将移动设备和其他技术的数据作为疾病传播行为驱动因素的有用替代指标,但仍有许多工作要做,以衡量和验证这些方法,特别是对于决策制定而言。在这里,我们讨论了如何在模型框架的设计和新数据流的解释中整合本地知识,为公共卫生决策提供具有政策相关性的模型,并针对传染病相关的人类行为发展出稳健、具有通用性的理论。