Development of an economic model for the management of upper gastrointestinal disease in primary care. Preliminary findings.

Health economic models for identifying therapeutic options that maximise health benefits from limited healthcare resources are being developed in a number of therapeutic areas. The development of such a model for upper gastrointestinal (UGI) symptoms to support decision-making by primary care clinicians is of particular importance, given the prevalence of this symptomatology. This economic model was based upon the clinical guidelines aimed at improving the management of UGI disorders at the primary care level that were developed by the International Gastro Primary Care Group. This paper discusses the derivation, methodology and results of the economic model developed to assess the resource implications arising from these clinical guidelines. In order to construct the economic model, it was necessary to identify the following: every therapeutic pathway followed by patients resource use along each pathway the probabilities of following alternative pathways. One crucial factor underlying the interpretation of results obtained from any economic model is the time period covered by the model. The model presented here analysed the initial 12-month treatment period of 'new' patients presenting with UGI symptoms. In order to test the implications of a longer term perspective, the model is currently being developed to analyse resource use over a 24-month period. The model demonstrates that utilising the predominant symptom approach to the diagnosis and treatment of patients with UGI disorders appears to provide significant benefits in terms of patient management and effective resource use. This factor, together with the more intensive use of Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy, provides the potential to reduce the cost of drugs for the treatment of UGI disorders by approximately 15% in the UK. A major strength of the model is its adaptability to a wide range of clinical and cost scenarios. Such adaptability enables the model to effectively reflect the potential resource implications in countries exhibiting significantly different levels of cost and patient management. In this manner, the model provides one valuable method by which clinicians can be supported in optimising the management of UGI disorders within current resource constraints.