Linet M S, Ries L A, Smith M A, Tarone R E, Devesa S S
Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD 20892-7238, USA.
J Natl Cancer Inst. 1999 Jun 16;91(12):1051-8. doi: 10.1093/jnci/91.12.1051.
BACKGROUND: Public concern about possible increases in childhood cancer incidence in the United States led us to examine recent incidence and mortality patterns. METHODS: Cancers diagnosed in 14540 children under age 15 years from 1975 through 1995 and reported to nine population-based registries in the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program were investigated. Age-adjusted incidence was analyzed according to anatomic site and histologic categories of the International Classification of Childhood Cancer. Age-adjusted U.S. mortality rates were calculated. Trends in rates were evaluated by use of standard regression methods. RESULTS: A modest rise in the incidence of leukemia, the most common childhood cancer, was largely due to an abrupt increase from 1983 to 1984; rates have decreased slightly since 1989. For brain and other central nervous system (CNS) cancers, incidence rose modestly, although statistically significantly (two-sided P = .020), largely from 1983 through 1986. A few rare childhood cancers demonstrated upward trends (e.g., the 40% of skin cancers designated as dermatofibrosarcomas, adrenal neuroblastomas, and retinoblastomas, the latter two in infants only). In contrast, incidence decreased modestly but statistically significantly for Hodgkin's disease (two-sided P = .037). Mortality rates declined steadily for all major childhood cancer categories, although less rapidly for brain/CNS cancers. CONCLUSIONS: There was no substantial change in incidence for the major pediatric cancers, and rates have remained relatively stable since the mid-1980s. The modest increases that were observed for brain/CNS cancers, leukemia, and infant neuroblastoma were confined to the mid-1980s. The patterns suggest that the increases likely reflected diagnostic improvements or reporting changes. Dramatic declines in childhood cancer mortality represent treatment-related improvements in survival.
背景:美国公众对儿童癌症发病率可能上升的担忧促使我们研究近期的发病率和死亡率模式。 方法:调查了1975年至1995年间在15岁以下儿童中诊断出的癌症,这些癌症已报告给美国国立癌症研究所监测、流行病学和最终结果计划中的9个基于人群的登记处。根据国际儿童癌症分类的解剖部位和组织学类别分析年龄调整发病率。计算美国年龄调整死亡率。使用标准回归方法评估发病率趋势。 结果:最常见的儿童癌症白血病发病率略有上升,这主要归因于1983年至1984年的突然增加;自1989年以来发病率略有下降。对于脑和其他中枢神经系统(CNS)癌症,发病率适度上升,尽管具有统计学意义(双侧P = 0.020),主要发生在1983年至1986年期间。一些罕见的儿童癌症呈上升趋势(例如,40%的皮肤癌被指定为皮肤纤维肉瘤、肾上腺神经母细胞瘤和成视网膜细胞瘤,后两者仅见于婴儿)。相比之下,霍奇金病的发病率适度下降,但具有统计学意义(双侧P = 0.037)。所有主要儿童癌症类别的死亡率均稳步下降,尽管脑/CNS癌症的下降速度较慢。 结论:主要儿科癌症的发病率没有实质性变化,自20世纪80年代中期以来发病率一直相对稳定。脑/CNS癌症、白血病和婴儿神经母细胞瘤的适度增加仅限于20世纪80年代中期。这些模式表明,增加可能反映了诊断改善或报告变化。儿童癌症死亡率的显著下降代表了与治疗相关的生存改善。
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