Technology evolution: the technology spectrum and its application to orthopedic technologies.

The evolution of clinical technologies presents potential adopters with considerations in planning for clinical program development that include the stage and the rate of a technology's evolution. This paper presents a conceptual framework for these considerations and applies the framework to orthopedic technologies. Eight orthopedic surgeons were asked to assess 14 orthopedic technologies and position each of them along a spectrum of research, clinical, and adopted technologies. The distribution of responses for each technology-year combination is presented, and estimates of central tendency, dispersion, and variances provide measures of the change in the distribution of responses over time for each technology and the change in the degree of rater consensus over time for each technology. While orthopedic trauma was chosen to illustrate the technology spectrum model, the model and assessment methodology is applicable to other medical specialties as well. Adoption of this framework in a hospital setting should enable more systematic and effective clinical program development.