Marseille E, Kahn J G, Mmiro F, Guay L, Musoke P, Fowler M G, Jackson J B
Health Strategies International, Orinda, CA 94563, USA.
Lancet. 1999 Sep 4;354(9181):803-9. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(99)80009-9.
BACKGROUND: Identification of economical interventions to decrease HIV-1 transmission to children is an urgent public-health priority in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed the cost effectiveness of the HIVNET 012 nevirapine regimen. METHODS: We assessed cost effectiveness in a hypothetical cohort of 20,000 pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa. Our main outcome measures were programme cost, paediatric HIV-1 cases averted, cost per case averted, and cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY). We compared HIVNET 012 with other short-course antiretroviral regimens. We also compared two implementation strategies: counselling and HIV-1 testing before treatment (targeted treatment), or nevirapine for all pregnant women (universal treatment, no counselling and testing). We did univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses. FINDINGS: For universal treatment with 30% HIV-1 seroprevalence, the HIVNET 012 regimen would avert 603 cases of HIV-1 in babies, cost US$83,333, and generate 15,862 DALYs. The associated cost-effectiveness ratios were $138 per case averted or $5.25 per DALY. At 15% seroprevalence, the universal treatment option would cost $83,333 and avert 302 cases at $276 per case averted or $10.51 per DALY. For targeted treatment at 30% seroprevalence, HIVNET 012 would cost $141,922 and avert 476 cases at $298 per case averted or $11.29 per DALY. With seroprevalence higher than 3.0% for universal and 4.5% for targeted treatment, the HIVNET 012 regimen was likely to be as cost effective as other public-health interventions. The cost effectiveness of HIVNET 012 was robust under a wide range of parameters in the sensitivity analysis. INTERPRETATION: The HIVNET 012 regimen can be highly cost-effective in high seroprevalence settings. In lower seroprevalence areas, when multidose regimens are not cost effective, nevirapine therapy could have a major public-health impact at a reasonable cost.
背景:确定经济有效的干预措施以减少人类免疫缺陷病毒1型(HIV-1)传播给儿童是撒哈拉以南非洲地区紧迫的公共卫生重点。我们评估了HIVNET 012奈韦拉平方案的成本效益。 方法:我们在撒哈拉以南非洲地区一个假设的20000名孕妇队列中评估成本效益。我们的主要结局指标是项目成本、避免的儿童HIV-1病例数、每避免一例的成本以及每伤残调整生命年(DALY)的成本。我们将HIVNET 012与其他短程抗逆转录病毒方案进行比较。我们还比较了两种实施策略:治疗前咨询和HIV-1检测(靶向治疗),或对所有孕妇使用奈韦拉平(普遍治疗,不进行咨询和检测)。我们进行了单变量和多变量敏感性分析。 结果:对于HIV-1血清阳性率为30%的普遍治疗,HIVNET 012方案可避免603例婴儿感染HIV-1,成本为83333美元,并产生15862个DALY。相关的成本效益比为每避免一例138美元或每DALY 5.25美元。在血清阳性率为15%时,普遍治疗方案将花费83333美元,每避免一例花费276美元或每DALY 10.51美元,可避免302例。对于血清阳性率为30%的靶向治疗,HIVNET 012将花费141922美元,每避免一例花费298美元或每DALY 11.29美元,可避免476例。当普遍治疗的血清阳性率高于3.0%且靶向治疗的血清阳性率高于4.5%时,HIVNET 012方案可能与其他公共卫生干预措施具有同样的成本效益。在敏感性分析的广泛参数范围内,HIVNET 012的成本效益是稳健的。 解读:HIVNET 012方案在高血清阳性率环境中可能具有很高的成本效益。在血清阳性率较低的地区,当多剂量方案不具有成本效益时,奈韦拉平治疗可能以合理的成本产生重大的公共卫生影响。
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