Jørgensen F, Wentzel-Larsen T
Bodø Graduate School of Business, Norway.
Accid Anal Prev. 1999 Nov;31(6):729-38. doi: 10.1016/s0001-4575(99)00036-6.
The aim of the paper is to develop a model of drivers' behaviour particularly designed to analyse the safety and total driving cost implications of warning sign installations. One special feature of the model is that it makes a clear distinction between drivers' perceived risk values at certain speeds and their respective objective values. When focusing on a certain stretch of road only, the paper concludes that warning signs will increase safety and probably reduce total objective driving costs; that is the sum of time costs and objective expected accident costs. Since drivers' speed will reduce implying higher time costs per distance, the reduction in total objective driving costs will be lower than the reductions in accident costs. The analysis is then extended to comprise the whole road system and using warning signs prior to curves as an example. Besides the driving conditions in different curves, the analysis shows that the optimal number of signs is dependent on the road authorities' objectives for road traffic and on how drivers form their risk perceptions. Generally speaking, simulations indicate that the safety and economic benefits of warning sign installation are not very high. When considering the whole road system, warning signs seem, however, to have a greater positive impact on total driving costs than on accident costs.
本文的目的是建立一个驾驶员行为模型，该模型专门用于分析警告标志安装对安全性和总驾驶成本的影响。该模型的一个特殊之处在于，它明确区分了驾驶员在特定速度下的感知风险值与其各自的客观风险值。仅关注某一路段时，本文得出结论：警告标志将提高安全性，并可能降低总客观驾驶成本；总客观驾驶成本即时间成本与客观预期事故成本之和。由于驾驶员速度会降低，意味着每单位距离的时间成本更高，因此总客观驾驶成本的降低幅度将低于事故成本的降低幅度。然后，分析扩展至整个道路系统，并以弯道前使用警告标志为例。除了不同弯道的驾驶条件外，分析表明，标志的最佳数量取决于道路管理部门对道路交通的目标以及驾驶员如何形成其风险认知。一般来说，模拟结果表明，安装警告标志的安全和经济效益并不高。然而，考虑整个道路系统时，警告标志似乎对总驾驶成本的积极影响比对事故成本的影响更大。
