Tengström A, Grann M, Långström N, Kullgren G
Karolinska Institutet, Division of Forensic Psychiatry, Stockholm, Sweden.
Law Hum Behav. 2000 Feb;24(1):45-58. doi: 10.1023/a:1005474719516.
Hare's Psychopathy Checklist--Revised (PCL-R) was used to test the hypothesis that psychopathy predicts violent recidivism in a cohort subjected to forensic psychiatric investigation and consisting of male violent offenders with schizophrenia (N = 202). Psychopathy was assessed with retrospective file-based ratings. Mean follow-up time after detainment was 51 months. Twenty-two percent of the offenders had a PCL-R score > or = 26 (cutoff), and the base rate for violent recidivism (reconvictions) during follow-up was 21%. Survival analysis revealed that psychopathy was strongly associated to violent recidivism (log-rank = 17.71, df = 1, p < 0.0001). The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) of PCL-R total score to predict violent recidivism varied between different time frames from .64 to .75. Cox regression analyses revealed that other potential risk factors could not equally well or better explain violent recidivism in the cohort than psychopathy as measured by PCL-R.
使用黑尔修订版精神病态量表（PCL-R）来检验这一假设：在一个接受法医精神病学调查、由患有精神分裂症的男性暴力罪犯组成的队列（N = 202）中，精神病态可预测暴力再犯情况。通过基于档案的回顾性评分来评估精神病态。拘留后的平均随访时间为51个月。22%的罪犯PCL-R得分≥26（临界值），随访期间暴力再犯（再次定罪）的基础发生率为21%。生存分析显示，精神病态与暴力再犯密切相关（对数秩检验=17.71，自由度=1，p<0.0001）。PCL-R总分预测暴力再犯的受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）下面积（AUC）在不同时间框架内从0.64到0.75不等。Cox回归分析显示，与PCL-R所衡量的精神病态相比，其他潜在风险因素并不能同样好地或更好地解释该队列中的暴力再犯情况。
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