Predicting inpatient mortality for pediatric trauma patients with blunt injuries: a better alternative.

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to identify significant independent predictors of inpatient mortality rates for pediatric victims of blunt trauma and to develop a formula for predicting the probability of inpatient mortality for these patients.

METHODS

Emergency department and inpatient data from 2,923 pediatric victims of blunt injury in the New York State Trauma Registry in 1994 and 1995 were used to explore the relationship between patient risk factors and mortality rate. A stepwise logistic regression model with P<.05 was developed using survival status asthe dependent variable. Independent variables included are elements of the Pediatric Trauma Score (PTS), additional elements from the Revised Trauma Score (RTS), the motor response and eye opening components of the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), age-specific systolic blood pressure, the AVPU score, and 2 measures of anatomic injury severity (the Injury Severity Score [ISS] and the International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision-based Injury Severity Score [ICISS]).

RESULTS

The only significant independent predictors of severity that emerged were the ICISS, no motor response (best motor response = 1) from the GCS, and the unresponsive component from the AVPU score. The statistical model exhibited an excellent fit (C statistic = .964). The specificity associated with the prediction of inpatient mortality rate based on the presence of 1 or more of these risk factors was .926, and the sensitivity was .944.

CONCLUSION

The best independent predictors of inpatient mortality rate for pediatric trauma patients with blunt injuries include variables not specifically contained in the PTS or the RTS: ICISS, no motor response (best motor response = 1) from the GCS, and the unresponsive component of the AVPU score.