Sokal R R, Oden N L, Rosenberg M S, Thomson B A
Department of Ecology and Evolution, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5245, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2000 May 23;97(11):6067-72. doi: 10.1073/pnas.97.11.6067.
We have previously shown that geographic differences in cancer mortalities in Europe are related to (in order of importance): geographic distances (reflecting environmental differences), ethnohistoric distances (encompassing cultural and genetic attributes), and genetic distances of the populations in the areas studied. In this study, we analyzed the relations of the same three factors to European incidences of 45 male and 47 female cancers. Differences in cancer incidences are correlated moderately, first with geographic distances, and then with genetic distances, but not at all with ethnohistoric distances. Comparing these findings to the earlier ones for cancer mortalities, we note the reversal in the importance of ethnohistory and genetics, and the generally lower correlations of incidence differences with the three putatively causal distance matrices. A path diagram combining both studies demonstrates the lack of cultural carcinogenic effects, but suggests cultural influences on procedures such as the registration of deaths in different political entities. Additionally, the relatively large correlation between ethnohistoric distances and mortality differences is caused by common factors behind the correlation of ethnohistoric and geographic distances. Geographic proximity results in similar ethnohistories. The direct effects of genetic distances are negligible and only their common effects with geographic distances play a role, accounting for the weak to negligible influence of genetics on incidence and mortality differences. Apparently, the genetic systems available to us do not substantially affect cancer incidence or mortality. We present indirect evidence that international differences in the quality of cancer rate data are greater in mortalities than in incidences.
我们之前已经表明，欧洲癌症死亡率的地理差异与以下因素相关（按重要性排序）：地理距离（反映环境差异）、民族历史距离（包括文化和遗传属性）以及所研究地区人群的遗传距离。在本研究中，我们分析了这三个相同因素与欧洲45种男性癌症和47种女性癌症发病率的关系。癌症发病率的差异存在中等程度的相关性，首先与地理距离相关，其次与遗传距离相关，但与民族历史距离完全无关。将这些发现与早期关于癌症死亡率的发现进行比较，我们注意到民族历史和遗传因素重要性的逆转，以及发病率差异与三个假定因果距离矩阵的总体较低相关性。结合两项研究的路径图表明不存在文化致癌效应，但暗示文化对不同政治实体中死亡登记等程序有影响。此外，民族历史距离与死亡率差异之间相对较大的相关性是由民族历史距离和地理距离相关性背后的共同因素导致的。地理上的接近导致了相似的民族历史。遗传距离的直接影响可以忽略不计，只有它们与地理距离的共同影响起作用，这解释了遗传因素对发病率和死亡率差异的微弱至可忽略不计的影响。显然，我们所拥有的遗传系统对癌症发病率或死亡率没有实质性影响。我们提供间接证据表明，癌症发病率数据质量的国际差异在死亡率方面比在发病率方面更大。
