Speed H D, Andersen M B
Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia.
J Sci Med Sport. 2000 Mar;3(1):84-92. doi: 10.1016/s1440-2440(00)80051-1.
The power of research design in studies published in the Australian Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport (AJSMS: now the Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport) for the years 1996 and 1997 were analysed for their ability to detect small, medium, and large effects according to Cohen's (1988) conventions. Also examined were the reporting and interpreting of effect sizes and the control for experiment-wise (EW) Type I error rates. From the two years of articles, 29 studies were analysed, and power was computed on 108 different tests of significance. The median power of the studies to detect small, medium, and large effects were .14, .65 and .97, respectively. These results suggest that exercise and sport science research, at least as represented in AJSMS, is probably underpowered and may be limited in detecting small effects, has a better, but still underpowered, chance of detecting medium effects, and has adequate power principally for detecting large effects. The reporting of effect sizes was rare, and adequate interpretation of them was even rarer. The mean EW Type I error rate for all studies was .49. The analyses conducted suggest that much research in exercise science may have substantial Type I and Type II errors. An appeal is made for exercise scientists to conduct power analyses, control for EW error, exercise caution in the interpretation of nonsignificant results, and examine, report, and interpret effect sizes rather than solely rely on p values to determine whether significant changes occurred or significant relationships exist.
根据科恩(1988年)的标准,对1996年和1997年发表在《澳大利亚运动科学与医学杂志》(AJSMS:现为《运动科学与医学杂志》)上的研究的研究设计能力进行了分析,以评估其检测小、中、大效应的能力。还检查了效应量的报告和解释以及实验性(EW)I型错误率的控制情况。从这两年的文章中,分析了29项研究,并对108种不同的显著性检验计算了检验效能。这些研究检测小、中、大效应的中位检验效能分别为0.14、0.65和0.97。这些结果表明,至少在AJSMS中所代表的运动与体育科学研究,可能检验效能不足,在检测小效应方面可能受到限制,检测中等效应的机会较好但仍检验效能不足,而主要在检测大效应方面有足够的检验效能。效应量的报告很少见,对其进行充分解释的情况更是罕见。所有研究的平均EW I型错误率为0.49。所进行的分析表明,运动科学中的许多研究可能存在大量的I型和II型错误。呼吁运动科学家进行检验效能分析,控制EW错误,在解释无显著性结果时谨慎行事,并检查、报告和解释效应量,而不是仅仅依赖p值来确定是否发生了显著变化或是否存在显著关系。