Fedorov AV, Philander SG
Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
Science. 2000 Jun 16;288(5473):1997-2002. doi: 10.1126/science.288.5473.1997.
Recent advances in observational and theoretical studies of El Nino have shed light on controversies concerning the possible effect of global warming on this phenomenon over the past few decades and in the future. El Nino is now understood to be one phase of a natural mode of oscillation-La Nina is the complementary phase-that results from unstable interactions between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. Random disturbances maintain this neutrally stable mode, whose properties depend on the background (time-averaged) climate state. Apparent changes in the properties of El Nino could reflect the importance of random disturbances, but they could also be a consequence of decadal variations of the background state. The possibility that global warming is affecting those variations cannot be excluded.
近期对厄尔尼诺现象的观测和理论研究进展，为过去几十年及未来全球变暖对这一现象可能产生的影响所引发的争议带来了启示。现在人们认识到，厄尔尼诺是自然振荡模式的一个阶段——拉尼娜是其互补阶段——它源于热带太平洋与大气之间不稳定的相互作用。随机扰动维持着这种中性稳定模式，其特性取决于背景（时间平均）气候状态。厄尔尼诺特性的明显变化可能反映了随机扰动的重要性，但也可能是背景状态年代际变化的结果。不能排除全球变暖正在影响这些变化的可能性。
