Evenson R C, Altman H, Sletten I W, Cho D W
Dis Nerv Syst. 1975 May;36(5):250-2.
Multivariate-equation predictions of length of hospital stay and probability of unauthorized absence were compared with similar predictions made by clincians and actual outcome for 167 patients drawn from a random sample of admissions during a two-month period at five state hospitals. The computer proved to be about as accurate as clinicians in predicting length of stay. Neither computer nor clinician was able to usefully predict unauthorized absence because of its infrquent occurrance. Use and improvement of such actuarial predictions within the Missouri automated data base were discussed.
对住院时间和擅自缺勤概率的多变量方程预测结果，与临床医生所做的类似预测以及从五家州立医院两个月期间的入院随机样本中抽取的167名患者的实际结果进行了比较。结果证明，计算机在预测住院时间方面与临床医生的准确性相当。由于擅自缺勤情况很少发生，计算机和临床医生都无法有效地预测擅自缺勤情况。文中还讨论了在密苏里州自动化数据库中此类精算预测的应用和改进。
