Falkowski P, Scholes R J, Boyle E, Canadell J, Canfield D, Elser J, Gruber N, Hibbard K, Högberg P, Linder S, Mackenzie F T, Moore B, Pedersen T, Rosenthal Y, Seitzinger S, Smetacek V, Steffen W
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA.
Science. 2000 Oct 13;290(5490):291-6. doi: 10.1126/science.290.5490.291.
Motivated by the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 due to human activities since the Industrial Revolution, several international scientific research programs have analyzed the role of individual components of the Earth system in the global carbon cycle. Our knowledge of the carbon cycle within the oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, and the atmosphere is sufficiently extensive to permit us to conclude that although natural processes can potentially slow the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2, there is no natural "savior" waiting to assimilate all the anthropogenically produced CO2 in the coming century. Our knowledge is insufficient to describe the interactions between the components of the Earth system and the relationship between the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical and climatological processes. Overcoming this limitation requires a systems approach.
受工业革命以来人类活动导致大气中二氧化碳迅速增加的影响，几个国际科研项目分析了地球系统各组成部分在全球碳循环中的作用。我们对海洋、陆地生态系统和大气中碳循环的认识已经足够广泛，足以让我们得出结论：尽管自然过程有可能减缓大气中二氧化碳的增加速度，但在未来一个世纪里，并没有自然的“救世主”等待着吸收所有人为产生的二氧化碳。我们的知识不足以描述地球系统各组成部分之间的相互作用以及碳循环与其他生物地球化学和气候过程之间的关系。克服这一局限性需要采用系统方法。
