Janzen W B, Coe W C
J Clin Psychol. 1975 Oct;31(4):757-65. doi: 10.1002/1097-4679(197510)31:4<757::aid-jclp2270310446>3.0.co;2-r.
The validity of predicting female homosexuality from empirical signs from the Draw-A-Person (DAP) was compared to the validity of psychologists' "blind" predictions from the same DAP protocols. Four specific DAP signs significantly predicted homosexual drawings from those of heterosexual controls; patterns derived from these signs were even better predictors. Two of four clinicians predicted sexual orientation greater than chance; one predicted as well as the optimal sign pattern. In view of the expected shrinkage involved in cross-validating the empirical signs and patterns, clinical prediction probably would equal or surpass the accuracy of statistical prediction. Individual differences in clinical prediction and the process of clinical prediction were discussed.
根据画人测验（DAP）的实证迹象预测女性同性恋的有效性，与心理学家根据相同DAP协议进行的“盲测”预测的有效性进行了比较。四个特定的DAP迹象能显著地从异性恋对照者的绘图中预测出同性恋绘图；从这些迹象得出的模式是更好的预测指标。四位临床医生中有两位预测性取向的能力高于随机水平；有一位的预测效果与最佳迹象模式相当。鉴于在对实证迹象和模式进行交叉验证时会出现预期的效果衰减，临床预测可能会等同于或超过统计预测的准确性。文中还讨论了临床预测中的个体差异以及临床预测过程。
