Outline of a diabetes disease management model: principles and applications.

A complex interactive computer model was developed to determine the health outcomes and economic consequences of different diabetes interventions for user-defined observation periods. The interventions include intensive or conventional insulin therapy, different oral hypoglycaemic medications, different screening and treatment strategies for micro-vascular complications, different treatment strategies for end-stage complications, or multi-factorial interventions. The analyses can be performed on different sub-groups of type 1 and 2 diabetic patients, defined in terms of age, gender, baseline risk factors and pre-existing complications. The model performs real-time simulations. Full on-screen documentation of the model structure, logic, calculations and data sources is available to maximize the model's transparency. Economic and clinical data used in the disease management model are editable by the user, allowing the input of new data as they become available, the creation of country-specific, HMO-specific, or provider-specific versions of the model, and the exploration of new hypotheses ('what-if' analyses). The approach used allows maximum flexibility, adaptability, and transparency within the model structure. For the user-defined patient cohorts and intervention strategies the diabetes disease management model compares life expectancy, expected incidence and prevalence of complications as well as expected life-time (or shorter) treatment cost. Diabetes and complication management strategies can be compared in different patient populations in a variety of realistic clinical settings. The model allows extrapolation of results obtained from relatively short-term clinical trials to longer-term medical outcomes, and from trial populations to real-life populations providing a tangible yardstick to judge the quality of diabetes care. The model was used to evaluate diabetes care options in Germany, France, Switzerland, UK and US.