Greatorex J, Dexter T
University of Cambridge Local Examinations Syndicate, England.
J Adv Nurs. 2000 Oct;32(4):1016-24.
The Delphi method is used to investigate consensus amongst a panel of experts using repeated rounds of a questionnaire, often in healthcare settings. However, many Delphi studies do not report any investigation into what happens to the stability of consensus or the convergence of agreement between the rounds in the study, which may be of importance. In this paper an accessible analytical approach is outlined using graphical presentations of means and standard deviations to identify what happens between rounds. For Delphi studies where the scale upon which experts are expressing their opinions can be considered to be interval, the mean will represent the group opinion whilst the standard deviation will represent the level of agreement. An example Delphi study from a healthcare setting is used to illustrate the methodology.
德尔菲法通常用于医疗环境中，通过多轮问卷调查来研究专家小组之间的共识。然而，许多德尔菲研究并未报告对研究中各轮之间共识稳定性或意见一致性收敛情况的任何调查，而这可能很重要。本文概述了一种易于理解的分析方法，利用均值和标准差的图形展示来确定各轮之间的情况。对于专家表达意见的量表可视为区间量表的德尔菲研究，均值将代表群体意见，而标准差将代表一致程度。文中使用了一个来自医疗环境的德尔菲研究实例来说明该方法。
