Nagin D S, Tremblay R E
H. J. Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213-2890, USA.
Psychol Methods. 2001 Mar;6(1):18-34. doi: 10.1037/1082-989x.6.1.18.
This article presents a group-based method to jointly estimate developmental trajectories of 2 distinct but theoretically related measurement series. The method will aid the analysis of comorbidity and heterotypic continuity. Three key outputs of the model are (a) for both measurement series, the form of the trajectory of distinctive subpopulations; (b) the probability of membership in each such trajectory group; and (c) the joint probability of membership in trajectory groups across behaviors. This final output offers 2 novel features. First, the joint probabilities can characterize the linkage in the developmental course of distinct but related behaviors. Second, the joint probabilities can measure differences within the population in the magnitude of this linkage. Two examples are presented to illustrate the application of the method.
本文提出了一种基于群体的方法，用于联合估计两个不同但理论上相关的测量系列的发展轨迹。该方法将有助于对共病和异型连续性进行分析。该模型的三个关键输出是：(a) 对于两个测量系列，不同亚群体轨迹的形式；(b) 属于每个此类轨迹组的概率；以及 (c) 跨行为属于轨迹组的联合概率。这一最终输出具有两个新特点。首先，联合概率可以表征不同但相关行为发展过程中的联系。其次，联合概率可以衡量总体中这种联系程度的差异。给出了两个例子来说明该方法的应用。
