van der Pol M, Cairns J
Health Economics Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, Foresterhill, UK.
Soc Sci Med. 2001 May;52(9):1459-70. doi: 10.1016/s0277-9536(00)00256-2.
This study is the first to use discrete choice experiments to elicit inter-temporal preferences for health. Inter-temporal preferences with respect to one's own future health are compared with inter-temporal preferences with respect to others' future health. Discrete choice experiments are used to measure the relative importance of the duration of ill-health and how far in the future the ill-health occurs. Data were collected by postal questionnaire in the UK. The median implied rates of discount range from 0.055 to 0.091 for own health, depending on the period of delay, and from 0.078 to 0.147 for others' health. The implied discount rate varies with respect to age, self-rated health, and version of the questionnaire. The implied discount rates are broadly comparable with other published estimates using closed-ended methods. One concern is the large percentage of respondents with dominant preferences. This issue needs to be explored before adopting the approach of discrete choice experiments to elicit inter-temporal preferences.
本研究首次运用离散选择实验来引出对健康的跨期偏好。将关于自身未来健康的跨期偏好与关于他人未来健康的跨期偏好进行比较。离散选择实验用于衡量健康不佳持续时间的相对重要性以及健康不佳在未来多远的时间发生。数据通过英国的邮政问卷调查收集。根据延迟期的不同，自身健康的隐含贴现率中位数在0.055至0.091之间，他人健康的隐含贴现率中位数在0.078至0.147之间。隐含贴现率因年龄、自评健康状况和问卷版本而异。隐含贴现率与其他使用封闭式方法发表的估计值大致可比。一个担忧是有主导偏好的受访者比例较大。在采用离散选择实验方法引出跨期偏好之前，需要探讨这个问题。
