Prediction of student performance on the Comprehensive Osteopathic Medical Licensing Examination Level I based on admission data and course performance.

To predict student performance on the Comprehensive Osteopathic Medical Licensing Examination (COMLEX-USA) Level 1 examination based on academic performance during the first 2 years, stepwise regression analysis of COMLEX-USA Level 1 performance with preadmission grade point averages, Medical College Admission Test scores, and academic performance was performed on the class of 2000 to develop three formulae that were then used to predict performance on COMLEX-USA Level 1 for the class of 2001. Models ranged in accuracy of predicting the pass/fail status from 95.2% (all available data) to 96.8% (first-year grades and admissions data). A predictive model for student performance on COMLEX-USA Level 1 can be developed and has a high degree of accuracy. The model with the most variables available to choose from predicts the most failures.