deMenocal P B
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
Science. 2001 Apr 27;292(5517):667-73. doi: 10.1126/science.1059827. Epub 2001 Apr 12.
Modern complex societies exhibit marked resilience to interannual-to- decadal droughts, but cultural responses to multidecadal-to-multicentury droughts can only be addressed by integrating detailed archaeological and paleoclimatic records. Four case studies drawn from New and Old World civilizations document societal responses to prolonged drought, including population dislocations, urban abandonment, and state collapse. Further study of past cultural adaptations to persistent climate change may provide valuable perspective on possible responses of modern societies to future climate change.
现代复杂社会对年际到年代际干旱表现出显著的恢复力,但对年代际到世纪际干旱的文化应对措施,只能通过整合详细的考古和古气候记录来加以探讨。从新旧世界文明中选取的四个案例研究记录了社会对长期干旱的应对情况,包括人口迁移、城市废弃和国家崩溃。进一步研究过去文化对持续气候变化的适应情况,可能会为现代社会应对未来气候变化的可能措施提供宝贵的视角。