Fogg M J
Probability Research Group, London, United Kingdom.
J Br Interplanet Soc. 1992 Jan;45(1):3-12.
A Monte Carlo computer model of extra-solar planetary formation and evolution, which includes the planetary geochemical carbon cycle, is presented. The results of a run of one million galactic disc stars are shown where the aim was to assess the possible abundance of both biocompatible and habitable planets. (Biocompatible planets are defined as worlds where the long-term presence of surface liquid water provides environmental conditions suitable for the origin and evolution of life. Habitable planets are those worlds with more specifically Earthlike conditions). The model gives an estimate of 1 biocompatible planet per 39 stars, with the subset of habitable planets being much rarer at 1 such planet per 413 stars. The nearest biocompatible planet may thus lie approximately 14 LY distant and the nearest habitable planet approximately 31 LY away. If planets form in multiple star systems then the above planet/star ratios may be more than doubled. By applying the results to stars in the solar neighbourhood, it is possible to identify 28 stars at distances of < 22 LY with a non-zero probability of possessing a biocompatible planet.
本文提出了一个太阳系外行星形成与演化的蒙特卡罗计算机模型，该模型包含行星地球化学碳循环。展示了对一百万个星系盘恒星运行的结果，其目的是评估具有生物相容性和宜居性的行星的可能丰度。（生物相容性行星被定义为表面长期存在液态水从而提供适合生命起源和演化的环境条件的星球。宜居行星是那些具有更具体类地条件的星球）。该模型估计每39颗恒星中有1颗生物相容性行星，而宜居行星的子集则更为稀少，每413颗恒星中有1颗这样的行星。因此，最近的生物相容性行星可能距离约14光年，最近的宜居行星约31光年。如果行星在多恒星系统中形成，那么上述行星与恒星的比例可能会增加一倍多。通过将结果应用于太阳附近的恒星，可以识别出28颗距离小于22光年且拥有生物相容性行星概率不为零的恒星。
